The Hazards of Forecasting Auto Sales
Forecasting new-vehicle sales in the U.S. automotive market is notoriously difficult, as all of us automotive economists know all too well. Monthly levels fluctuate widely and even the underlying trend rate of growth seems to accelerate and slow down over the years with unpredictable regularity. Add in some potentially severe shocks, ranging from skyrocketing gasoline prices to housing slumps, and the challenge is daunting under the best of circumstances.
